世界經(jīng)濟(jì)仍然處于深度調(diào)整期、既有復(fù)蘇跡象，也面臨基礎(chǔ)不穩(wěn)、動(dòng)力不足、速度不均的問(wèn)題。主要發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體的結(jié)構(gòu)性問(wèn)題遠(yuǎn)未解決，加強(qiáng)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策協(xié)調(diào)的必要性突出。新興市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)體增速放緩，外部風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和挑戰(zhàn)增加。世界貿(mào)易組織多哈回合談判舉步維艱，貿(mào)易和投資保護(hù)主義有新的表現(xiàn)。現(xiàn)實(shí)世界經(jīng)濟(jì)全面復(fù)蘇和健康成長(zhǎng)，將是一個(gè)長(zhǎng)期而曲折的過(guò)程.

The world economy is still in the middle of profound readjustment. While there are signs of recovery, there are also problems of fragile foundation, inadequate momentum and uneven speed of growth. Major developed economies are far from resolving their structural problems, making it all the more necessary to strengthen macro-economic policy coordination. Emerging market economies have slowed down and now face more external risks and challenges. The Doha Round negotiations are fraught with difficulties, and trade and investment protectionism is resurfacing in new forms .To achieve a full recovery and healthy growth of the word economy will be a long and tortuous process.

 

面對(duì)世界經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)帶來(lái)的新挑戰(zhàn)，無(wú)論是發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體還是發(fā)展中經(jīng)濟(jì)體，都在努力尋求新的增長(zhǎng)動(dòng)力.

 

增長(zhǎng)動(dòng)力從哪里來(lái)？我的看法是，只能從改革中來(lái)，從調(diào)整中來(lái)，從創(chuàng)新中來(lái)。亞太一直是世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的重要引擎，在世界經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇缺乏動(dòng)力的背景下，亞太經(jīng)濟(jì)體應(yīng)該拿出敢為天下先的勇氣，推動(dòng)建立發(fā)展創(chuàng)新、增長(zhǎng)聯(lián)動(dòng)、利益融合的開(kāi)放型經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展方式。只有這樣，才能做到“山重水復(fù)疑無(wú)路，柳暗花明又一村”，使亞太經(jīng)濟(jì)在世界經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇中發(fā)揮引領(lǐng)作用。

Where can we find the new drivers? In my opinion，they can only be found through reform, readjustment and innovation. The Asia Pacific has long been an important engine of world economic growth. To push for a recovery of the sluggish world economy, economies in the Asia Pacific should have the courage to do what has never been done before and build an open growth model featuring innovative development. interconnected growth and converging interests. Only by so doing can the Asia Pacific economies, as one Chinese poem describes,“find the way to the next village shaded in soft willows and bright flowers despite the difficulties posed by mountains and rivers” and play a leading role in the recovery of the world economy.

 

中國(guó)正在進(jìn)行著這樣的努力。上半年，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)同比增長(zhǎng)7.6%，較以往8%以上的增速確實(shí)有所放緩。一些朋友對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)前景有些擔(dān)心，有的人提出了一些問(wèn)題：中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)會(huì)不會(huì)“硬著陸”？中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)能不能持續(xù)健康發(fā)展？中國(guó)將如何應(yīng)對(duì)？中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)會(huì)給亞太帶來(lái)什么影響？對(duì)此，我愿談幾點(diǎn)看法。

This is exactly what China is doing. China’s economy grew at a speed of 7.6% in the first half of this year. This is, indeed, somewhat lower than the previous growth rate of over 8%, which has caused some friends to worry about the prospects of the Chinese economy .Some wondered whether there would be a hard landing. whether sustained, healthy growth was still possible, how China would deal with this situation, and what impact this would have on the Asia Pacific. Here I wish to share with you some of my observations.

 

首先，我要強(qiáng)調(diào)的是，綜合分析各方面情況，我對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展前景充滿信心。

 

第一，信心來(lái)自中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增速處在合理區(qū)間和預(yù)期目標(biāo)內(nèi)。中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增速?gòu)囊郧暗膬晌粩?shù)增長(zhǎng)到2011年的9.3%和2012年的7.8%，再到今年上半年的7.6%，總體上實(shí)現(xiàn)了平穩(wěn)過(guò)渡。7.6%的增長(zhǎng)，在世界主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體中名列前茅。中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)基本面是好的，經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)及其他主要經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)保持在預(yù)期目標(biāo)之內(nèi)，一切都在預(yù)料之中，沒(méi)有什么意外發(fā)生。

I am confident because first of all China’s growth rate is within the reasonable and expected range. From the previous double-digit growth rate to 9.3% in 2011,7.8% last year and 7.6% in the first half of this year, the change in speed of growth has on the whole been smooth. In fact, the growth rate of 7.6% makes the Chinese economy the fastest growing among major economies. The fundamentals of the Chinese economy are good; GDP growth and other major economic indicators are within the expected range. So everything has been going as expected and nothing has come as a surprise.

 

中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增速有所趨緩是中國(guó)主動(dòng)調(diào)控的結(jié)果。因?yàn)椋瑢?shí)現(xiàn)我們確定的到2020年國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值和城鄉(xiāng)居民人均收入比2010年翻一番的目的，只要7%的增速就夠了。我們?cè)谔岢鲋虚L(zhǎng)期發(fā)展目標(biāo)時(shí)就充分進(jìn)行了測(cè)算。同時(shí)，我們認(rèn)識(shí)到，為了從根本上解決中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)發(fā)展問(wèn)題，必須堅(jiān)定推動(dòng)結(jié)構(gòu)改革，寧可將增長(zhǎng)速度降下來(lái)一些。任何一項(xiàng)事業(yè)，都需要遠(yuǎn)近兼顧、深謀遠(yuǎn)慮，殺雞取卵、竭澤而漁式的發(fā)展是不會(huì)長(zhǎng)久的。

 

第二，信心來(lái)自于中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展質(zhì)量和效益穩(wěn)步提升。今年上半年，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的特點(diǎn)是總體平穩(wěn)、穩(wěn)重有進(jìn)。“穩(wěn)”是指經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)處在合理區(qū)間，“進(jìn)”是指經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展方式轉(zhuǎn)變步伐加快。中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展正在從以往過(guò)于依賴投資和出口拉動(dòng)向更多依靠國(guó)內(nèi)需求特別是消費(fèi)需求拉動(dòng)轉(zhuǎn)變。從上半年經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)看，結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整的拉動(dòng)作用正在顯現(xiàn)，內(nèi)需拉動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)7.5個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，其中消費(fèi)拉動(dòng)3.4個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。我們不再簡(jiǎn)單以國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值增長(zhǎng)率論英雄，而是強(qiáng)調(diào)以提高經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)質(zhì)量和效益為立足點(diǎn)。事實(shí)證明，這一政策是負(fù)責(zé)任的，即是對(duì)中國(guó)自身負(fù)責(zé)，也是對(duì)世界負(fù)責(zé)。

    Second, I am confident because the quality and efficiency of China’s economic development are improving steadily. China’s economic performance in the first half of this year has been generally smooth and made progress. By“smooth”, I mean our economic growth has been within a reasonable range and by “progress” I mean the shift of our growth model has picked up pace. China is moving from over-reliance on investment and export in the past to increased dependence on domestic demand, especially on consumption. The economic figures for the first half of this year show an increasingly visible role of structural adjustment in boosting growth. Domestic demand has contributed 7.5 percentage points to the GDP growth，With 3.4 percentage point coming from consumption. We no longer take GDP growth rate as the sole criterion for success. Instead, we are focusing more on improving the quality and efficiency of growth. This has been proven a responsible approach for both China and the world.